Most of the Kids Are Still Here: How States Can Help Schools Plan for Declining Enrollment (with Jason Willis)
Public schools still look much the way they did around 1910, and as enrollment falls, Jason Willis wants states to help districts rethink them rather than simply shrink them.
In this episode of The Stronger Podcast, Mike Montoya sits down with Jason, a senior policy fellow at WestEd, a national nonprofit that works on education and human development, and a clinical professor of public policy at the McGeorge School of Law in Sacramento, to talk about what states and districts can do as public school enrollment falls.
In this episode of The Stronger Podcast, Mike Montoya sits down with Jason, a senior policy fellow at WestEd, a national nonprofit that works on education and human development, and a clinical professor of public policy at the McGeorge School of Law in Sacramento, to talk about what states and districts can do as public school enrollment falls.
Jason started out on Wall Street as a credit rating analyst at Standard & Poor's, judging the financial health of public entities such as school districts and cities. He then came to California, where he was budget director at Oakland Unified, chief financial officer in Stockton, and an assistant superintendent at San Jose Unified for about five years. He and Mike have been friends and colleagues for many years.
With Carrie Hahnel of Bellwether, a national education nonprofit, Jason wrote a 12 page brief on how states can respond. The decline began in the mid 2010s, well before the pandemic, and its biggest driver is falling birth rates, with projections showing no flattening until sometime in the 2030s.
Mike and Jason get into why closing or consolidating a school should not be the first move, why some districts in lower cost exurbs on the edge of metro areas are growing, and why planning five or ten years out beats cutting a little every year. They also take on the compliance work, the forms and reports, that early estimates say takes nearly 40 percent of administrators' week, why grants to redesign schools only work when states take other duties off people's plates, and how the needs of the students who stay change as others leave.
Tune in to hear what Jason once told a room full of chief financial officers about selling their schools, and why he thinks winning back public trust will take a different conversation, with the student at the center.
Chapters:
Chapters:
- (01:15) - Still in the Bay Area, with two jobs in policy and law
- (01:52) - A campus close enough to see the Capitol
- (02:25) - Starting out on Wall Street as a credit rating analyst
- (02:44) - Budget director in Oakland, CFO in Stockton, and San Jose Unified
- (03:51) - Declining enrollment, and a report with Bellwether
- (04:38) - Writing the brief with Carrie Hahnel
- (04:58) - A decline that began before the pandemic
- (05:33) - Falling birth rates, the biggest driver
- (06:03) - Projections that run into the 2030s
- (06:35) - Why the brief looks at what states can do
- (07:09) - Closing a school, one of the hardest calls a district makes
- (08:40) - Limited resources and explicit choices
- (10:15) - Structural: the money is not coming back
- (10:45) - Why public systems can't cut like a business
- (11:39) - Don't jump to closure or consolidation
- (12:08) - Districts growing in the exurbs
- (12:52) - Matching spending to the revenue you will have
- (13:26) - Death by a thousand cuts
- (13:44) - Planning for five or ten years, not next year
- (14:06) - A love struggle relationship with Oakland
- (14:43) - Losing 1 or 2%, and still serving 98 or 99%
- (16:23) - State money to help districts reimagine schools
- (17:50) - Research on compliance in schools
- (18:26) - Nearly 40% of administrators' time on compliance
- (19:08) - Redesign grants need permission, not just money
- (20:44) - No principal took the job to fill out paperwork
- (20:57) - Local, state, and federal plans for every school
- (22:27) - The state's role: create the conditions
- (23:09) - Pandemic money that came and went
- (23:45) - A school model that has held since about 1910
- (24:14) - Fewer students, with higher needs
- (24:57) - Losses that don't fall evenly across student groups
- (26:01) - A math issue: the denominator is changing
- (26:35) - A school at 15% versus 85% economically disadvantaged
- (27:05) - Making space to plan with the community
- (29:27) - Why public education matters
- (30:01) - Democracy and choosing wisely
- (31:17) - Twenty years ago: new charters and fringe homeschooling
- (31:49) - Telling CFOs they will have to sell their schools
- (32:40) - What it means for students to be truly engaged
- (34:35) - Getting past the headlines, from custodian to state leader
- (35:20) - The habits that hold systems in place
- (35:50) - Rebuilding public trust with the student at the center
- (36:16) - What is really at stake: one child's experience
Referenced in this episode:
Declining Enrollment in America's Public Schools: How States Can Respond Strategically: https://www.wested.org/resource/declining-enrollment-in-americas-public-schools/
The Hidden Geography of School Enrollment Decline: Exurban Districts Are Booming While Others Shrink: https://bellwether.org/blog/hidden-geography-of-school-enrollment-decline/
Local Control, Rising Requirements: What Policymakers Need to Know About the California Public Education Regulatory Environment Now: https://www.wested.org/blog/insights-impact/local-control-rising-requirements-what-policymakers-need-to-know-about-the-california-public-education-regulatory-environment-now/
Links:
Jason Willis at WestEd: https://www.wested.org/personnel/jason-willis/
More about WestEd: https://www.wested.org/
WestEd on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wested
Connect with Mike: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mmsc/
Stronger Consulting: https://strongerconsulting.com
Start a podcast that matters: http://podcastsmatter.com
For more great podcasts like this one, visit https://podcaststhatmatter.org/
Stay strong.
Creators and Guests
Host
Mike Montoya
Thirty-two years in education, twenty-two of them inside the kinds of organizations Stronger now serves before founding the firm in 2016.
Guest
Jason Willis
Jason Willis is a Senior Fellow with the Education Finance and Systems Planning Team of WestEd.